Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-27 16.635792 19.375189 22.374404 25.895053 29.907511 34.330759 39.568684
2024-11-03 12.821371 16.742005 21.479855 27.592254 35.230689 44.419509 56.264525
2024-11-10 10.811537 15.436097 21.467117 29.825615 41.012627 55.358511 75.017760
2024-11-17 8.817598 13.600954 20.260354 30.065945 43.961977 62.743467 89.792852
2024-11-24 7.191260 11.894095 18.835857 29.619512 45.684194 68.405007 102.548789
2024-12-01 5.857696 10.340436 17.325640 28.722176 46.485461 72.652289 113.488953
2024-12-08 4.993402 9.353817 16.489685 28.654767 48.392004 78.525549 127.128720
2024-12-15 4.348047 8.609281 15.907170 28.860987 50.660135 85.035268 142.144913
2024-12-22 3.513774 7.377581 14.318426 27.167197 49.620493 86.218976 148.880767
2024-12-29 3.206546 7.068212 14.283650 28.107506 53.014891 94.710396 167.840440
2025-01-05 3.007891 6.934401 14.540363 29.574911 57.422533 105.169722 190.737172
2025-01-12 2.590782 6.281458 13.724383 28.955339 58.038387 109.228326 203.143769
2025-01-19 2.123514 5.460460 12.511659 27.527455 57.212671 111.038442 212.437230
2025-01-26 2.013488 5.425415 12.905825 29.340754 62.720996 124.653130 243.721343
2025-02-02 1.953486 5.496982 13.534400 31.705173 69.529472 141.181851 281.488543
2025-02-09 1.737683 5.143871 13.180907 31.959999 72.167927 150.164081 306.108269
2025-02-16 1.503905 4.693724 12.534732 31.488452 73.256788 156.257732 325.744909
2025-02-23 1.277143 4.209875 11.728011 30.540192 73.222014 160.119228 341.345521
2025-03-02 1.129451 3.913725 11.328528 30.468955 75.042956 167.772440 364.812803
2025-03-09 1.014338 3.686984 11.067166 30.686905 77.509770 176.901822 391.807266
2025-03-16 0.829996 3.200347 10.043001 28.896530 75.242634 176.037279 398.564899
2025-03-23 0.776994 3.125203 10.121259 29.890531 79.507532 189.258011 435.094875
2025-03-30 0.747218 3.122276 10.401749 31.441366 85.230958 206.008712 480.031536